In the later part of the twentieth century there existed political and military tensions between the western bloc and the eastern bloc (the major power centers dominating the world) which British author George Orwell called the “Cold War.” Unlike traditional wars, the cold war did not have casualties; it was a series of military muscle flexing exercises to establish dominance. In the 1970’s both parties reached a detente and the cold war was called off.
The 21st century has seen a change in the power dynamics of the world with the rise of the Asian giants; India and China playing key roles. In quest of prestige and dominance India and China are picking up where the US and Soviet Union left off.
China and India share a history when it comes to being “at daggers drawn” against each other. Border disputes over the Askai Chin region and the regions around the Macmohan line have led to wars, creating an air of severe hostility among the two, causing three major military conflicts: Sino-Indian War of 1962, the Chola incident in 1967, and the 1987 Sino-Indian skirmish.
In recent times, China denied
visa to Lt-Gen B S Jaswal, who was the commanding officer of the Jammu and Kashmir
region, causing a stir. The Chinese version of Google maps showed Arunachal
Pradesh as a part of China. Also in an act of defiance, China is seen to be
empowering Pakistan with Nuclear arsenal following the old axiom “The enemy of
enemy is a friend ipso-facto.”China and Pakistan have also participated in a
joint military exercise “Shaheen-2”putting India in a political quagmire. In
response to Shaheen-2, India and Japan (Both countries facing territorial
issues with China) started their first-ever joint exercises in Indian waters as
the countries took steps to tighten military ties. Even non-Asian countries
have joined hands with India with the MALABAR Exercise to curb the
assertiveness of China in Asia. Both India and China are forming allies to
out-do each other, creating a nexus similar to the cold war era, thus ushering
us into the cold war of the 21st century.
Comparison between the countries have festered the already sore relations, creating mistrust. At this juncture, bilateral trade which stands at $73.9 Billion is the only ameliorating factor. The optimistic $100 Billion bilateral trade goal by 2015 might ease the tension between the two countries. Entering into an entente will give an impetus to trade, reinvigorating the ancient “Silk Road” that once glued the two nations.

The bilateral trade should not be a deterrent for India as there is an increasingly skewed trade relationship between these 2 countries. As of now trade deficit stands to approximately $ 25 Bn. India Inc should work hard and frame efficient policies to narrow that gap else the trading route will bring in more of financial and intellectual losses for India.
ReplyDelete